Published on April 25, 2017

Talk on Voting Behavior – Professor Nichole Szembrot, Trinity College

This paper documents voters’ perceptions of interest group influence on candidates’ policy positions and the effect of perceived influence on intended voting behavior. The literature on campaign contributions has several explanations for why interest groups contribute to campaigns and how those funds translate into votes. Closing these models requires assumptions about voters’ responses, but there is little empirical evidence on the relationship between voters’ perceptions of interest group influence and their voting decisions. This paper uses an online survey conducted during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign to begin to close that gap in the literature. Subjects answer questions about their own opinions on 10 policy issues and make hypothetical choices between pairs of candidates. Then, they answer questions about the opinions of the leading candidates for president on the same set of issues. One treatment does not mention donors; another asks subjects to consider the possible influence of special interests; and a third treatment asks pairs of questions about policy preferences with and without taking donor influence into account. Respondents also rate candidates in terms of 7 personal characteristics. Controlling for candidates’ policy intentions, voters are neither more nor less likely to choose a candidate whose positions on issues were more influenced by interest groups. However, they are less likely to vote for a candidate they perceived to have received more money. When controls for personal characteristics are also included in the model, the effect of donations on vote choice disappears.